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Has U.S. Democracy Been Trumped? Bernie Sanders wants to know who owns America?

#15161 User is online   johnu 

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Posted 2020-April-16, 21:37

View Postshyams, on 2020-April-16, 19:28, said:

I have previously bored this audience by quoting betting odds of Trump winning a second term. Here is another quote from today.

As per a UK betting website, the current odds that Joe Biden will not be the Democratic Party nominee for President are quoted as 7.5% (rules: Nominee is the person chosen at Democratic National Convention. If, for any reason, this person is subsequently replaced before the actual elections in November, the outcome of the bet does not change).

In other words, if one bets $1,000 on Joe, one wins $75 if his name is formally on the ticket. Otherwise one loses the $1,000 placed.

Interesting! The market still factors a 7.5% doubt!!

Seems high, but maybe not totally unrealistic. First, mortality tables show about 3% chance of mortality in a year for somebody of Biden's age. Then there is the chance that he is incapacitated in some way before the election, a stroke, heart attack, accident, serious illness, etc. There could be a scandal that forces him out the race, but multiple serious scandals never forced the Grifter in Chief out of the 2016 race. The chance of a healthy Biden being replaced at the Democratic convention is pretty close to zero.

Longshots pretty much always get terrible odds from bookies. The longer the longshot, the more terrible the odds. Bookies don't want to go broke by huge bet on a big longshot that can't be laid off. For instance, my local baseball team is 500 to 1 against winning the world series. Honestly, they are closer to 5,000 or 10,000 to 1 against winning the World Series after trading away their best players in the last couple of years so they can rebuild (I still don't know how you can rebuild an awful team that was going nowhere, and get rid of the few good players and call it rebuilding).
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#15162 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2020-April-17, 10:28

Testing, testing, testing. Social distancing until testing. Damn, it's not that hard to understand.

https://abcnews.go.c...ory?id=70206121

"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." Black Lives Matter.
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#15163 User is online   johnu 

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Posted 2020-April-17, 13:11

View PostWinstonm, on 2020-April-17, 10:28, said:

Testing, testing, testing. Social distancing until testing. Damn, it's not that hard to understand.

https://abcnews.go.c...ory?id=70206121


According the Grifter in Chief, anybody in the USA can get ask for a COVID-19 test. Nobody ever said when they might actually receive one.
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#15164 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2020-April-17, 13:18

View PostWinstonm, on 2020-April-17, 10:28, said:

Testing, testing, testing. Social distancing until testing. Damn, it's not that hard to understand.

https://abcnews.go.c...ory?id=70206121



The UK has an antibody test that is reliable, but can only be done in small volumes (via the chemical/biological warfare labs at Porton down). They are using it to benchmark the home antibody tests, and the results are not good. I don't know if the results show false positives and negatives or just one of those, but 65% accuracy really doesn't cut it, not that much better than flipping a coin, and this is the problem atm till we get a better test.
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#15165 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2020-April-17, 14:32

View PostCyberyeti, on 2020-April-17, 13:18, said:

The UK has an antibody test that is reliable, but can only be done in small volumes (via the chemical/biological warfare labs at Porton down). They are using it to benchmark the home antibody tests, and the results are not good. I don't know if the results show false positives and negatives or just one of those, but 65% accuracy really doesn't cut it, not that much better than flipping a coin, and this is the problem atm till we get a better test.

I think the problem are the false positives. If 1% of the population is infected, but the test is positive for 5% of the non-infected one, and if you test everyone regardless of symptoms, then of course about five in six of those with positive tests would be false positives.
Obviously, you can increase your odds with a test with better specificity (low false negatives), or by increasing the percentage of the population that's infected - at least the UK is doing well on the latter... :ph34r: :blink:
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#15166 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2020-April-17, 15:40

Any US constitutional lawyers here? Would it be treason to call for an armed rebellion against state governments? Asking for a friend.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#15167 User is online   johnu 

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Posted 2020-April-17, 17:42

Even in the dark shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Grifter in Chief continues his world class grifting.

Trump Campaign Secretly Paying $180,000 A Year To His Sons’ Significant Others

Quote

“A lot of people close to Donald Trump are getting rich off of his campaign,” said Paul Ryan, a campaign finance legal expert at the watchdog group Common Cause. “They don’t want donors to know that they’re getting rich. Because, at the end of the day, it’s donor money.”

Stuart Stevens, a top aide to 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney’s campaign, was even more blunt: “That’s why Parscale has the job. He’s a money launderer, not a campaign manager.”

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#15168 User is online   johnu 

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Posted 2020-April-17, 17:43

View Postcherdano, on 2020-April-17, 15:40, said:

Any US constitutional lawyers here? Would it be treason to call for an armed rebellion against state governments led by Democratic governors in 2020 swing states? Asking for a friend.

Fixed your post
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#15169 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2020-April-18, 06:48

View Postjohnu, on 2020-April-17, 17:43, said:

Fixed your post

So it's only treason if you rebel against Republican governors?
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#15170 User is offline   awm 

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Posted 2020-April-18, 07:33

View Postcherdano, on 2020-April-18, 06:48, said:

So it's only treason if you rebel against Republican governors?


I'm not sure it's possible for the king of a country to commit treason. Trump has declared his power to be absolute after all. And Congress already decided that the treasonous-seeming Ukraine affair was permitted behavior.
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
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#15171 User is online   kenberg 

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Posted 2020-April-18, 08:02

There is a sense in which Trump seems to be beyond my expectations.

I had talked about Nero and Queeg, thinking maybe I was being extreme. Trump then speaks of himself as Captain Bligh.

Then with regard to the demonstrations in Michigan and elsewhere against social distancing, I comment that Trump could have used his popularity with his followers to stress the importance of distancing.. But then I find that it is not just that he did not try to calm them, rather he actively encourages the resistance to distancing. Free Michigan. Free Minnesota.

In 2016 I thought Trump was a horrible choice for president, worse than any we have ever had. Since then I have revised my opinion of him downward several times. I have still not reached the real Trump.
Ken
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#15172 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2020-April-18, 08:35

View Postkenberg, on 2020-April-18, 08:02, said:

There is a sense in which Trump seems to be beyond my expectations.

I had talked about Nero and Queeg, thinking maybe I was being extreme. Trump then speaks of himself as Captain Bligh.

Then with regard to the demonstrations in Michigan and elsewhere against social distancing, I comment that Trump could have used his popularity with his followers to stress the importance of distancing.. But then I find that it is not just that he did not try to calm them, rather he actively encourages the resistance to distancing. Free Michigan. Free Minnesota.

In 2016 I thought Trump was a horrible choice for president, worse than any we have ever had. Since then I have revised my opinion of him downward several times. I have still not reached the real Trump.


In response to the coronavirus, the real Trump closed his eyes, put his fingers in his ears, and yelled, nyah, nyah, nyah, I'm not listening as loudly as he could.
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." Black Lives Matter.
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#15173 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2020-April-18, 09:56

Eli Stokols and Janet Hook at LA Times: Trump and Biden clash over China in dueling ads

Quote

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s intensifying criticism of China isn’t just about deflecting blame during the coronavirus crisis — it’s opening up a new line of attack against Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee.

With the U.S. death toll surpassing 35,000 on Friday and the nation’s economy in a record-shattering swoon, Trump’s reelection chances now rest heavily on his ability to successfully frame the choice voters will face in November as a referendum on China, according to the president’s campaign aides and allies.

For Trump, it’s an update of the unapologetic nationalism he ran on four years ago, when he played up dangers supposedly posed by Mexicans and illegal immigration, and cast opponents as weak and naive. For Biden, determined to avoid Hillary Clinton’s fate, it’s a political and cultural minefield to distance himself from China without demonizing it as he makes his final bid for the White House.

Unwilling to let Trump’s arguments go unanswered, Biden’s campaign battled back Friday with a spate of ads disputing his alleged support for China, and going on offense — blaming Trump for being too trusting of President Xi Jinping as the coronavirus spread.

In a new video, Biden agrees that Chinese authorities were not honest about the early outbreak in Wuhan, and sought to cover up the contagion and the deaths. But Trump, he said, “is not doing enough about it.”

“The uncomfortable truth is that Donald Trump left America vulnerable and exposed to this pandemic,” Biden said. “He ignored the warnings of health experts and intelligence agencies and put his trust in China’s leaders instead.”

American Bridge, a major Democratic super PAC, put $15 million behind a separate TV ad that slams Trump for trusting and praising China and for shipping medical supplies to China when they remained in short supply at home.

With rallies and other physical campaigning on hold, the heated battle over China marked the first direct major engagement of the general election campaign.

The clash is playing out amid a pandemic that has put Trump in front of TV cameras at the White House every afternoon, and relegated Biden to remote TV and internet appearances from his home basement in Wilmington, Del.

Biden engaged after Trump’s campaign revved up political messaging focusing on the former vice president’s apparent ties to Beijing, in concert with efforts by the White House and its backers to blame China for the pandemic.

Internal research “shows that Joe Biden’s softness on China is a major vulnerability,” said Tim Murtaugh, a spokesman for Trump’s campaign.

Biden, he said, “doesn’t view China as an economic competitor, he was critical of the president’s life-saving China travel restrictions, he has resisted holding China accountable for the virus outbreak, and his son Hunter entered business with a state-owned Chinese bank after he accompanied his then-vice president father on an Air Force 2 trip to Beijing.”

As part of a $10-million ad buy in swing states, America First Action, the principal super PAC behind Trump’s reelection effort, this week broadcast spots juxtaposing old clips of Biden speaking favorably about China, with allegations that Beijing “stole American manufacturing and hoarded our emergency stockpile.”

“Now more than ever, America must stop China, and to stop China you have to stop Joe Biden,” the narrator intones.

On Twitter, Trump allies have branded their likely general election opponent as "#BeijingBiden.”

“The Chinese Communist Party has infected the world, and crashed the global economy,” said Steve Cortes, a Trump supporter working with America First. The Chinese economy, the world’s second-largest, has also crashed due to the coronavirus, according to official data released Friday.

But Biden alleges in the video he released Friday that Trump has failed to confront Chinese leaders since the pandemic began, and that the president has left America ill-prepared to respond to the crisis.

The Obama administration, Biden argues, initiated a program to receive early warnings for outbreaks and kept a strong Centers for Disease Control and Prevention presence in China to sound the alarm — both of which Trump dismantled.

“We had an American official stationed inside the Chinese disease control agency serving as our eyes and ears,” Biden says. “President Trump left that position vacant as the outbreak hit. And when the coronavirus started to spread, the CDC wanted to get into China to get information that could save American lives. China said no, and Donald Trump didn’t insist on access.”

Trump, Biden continues, instead praised Xi because “he was more worried about protecting his trade deal with China than he was about the virus that had already come to America.”

In the last month, Trump has bulldozed past questions at nightly briefings about supply shortages and the lack of U.S. testing, even as some hospitals in New York City were overrun and the death toll spiked. He has focused instead on China’s culpability.

After weeks of referring to the COVID-19 outbreak as a “Chinese virus,” Trump in recent days has blamed Beijing for not sufficiently warning the U.S. about the outbreak in Wuhan in December and part of January.

“I was angry, because this should have been told to us,” Trump said Thursday. “It should have been told to us early. It should have been told to us a lot sooner. People knew it was happening and people didn’t want to talk about it.”

Trump barred visitors from China on Jan. 31, but did not declare a U.S. health emergency until March 13, six weeks after the Wuhan outbreak was public knowledge.

For months, Trump had credited Chinese President Xi for his response. Xi, Trump said on Feb. 23, was “working very hard. I think he’s doing a very good job.”

On March 27, after the global economy had begun to crater, Trump offered more praise, tweeting that “China has been through much & has developed a strong understanding of the Virus. We are working closely together. Much respect!”

This week, he said he was suspending U.S. funding for the World Health Organization, alleging that the United Nations public health agency had shielded China from blame and was slow to react to the outbreak.

Claims of a cover-up spread after Fox News, citing unnamed U.S. intelligence sources, suggested that the coronavirus may have accidentally escaped from a Chinese research laboratory, not a wet market in Wuhan as Beijing has said. No evidence indicates it is an engineered virus.

“It’s very clear now that the Chinese Communist Party and the World Health Organization didn’t put that information out into the international space as they’re required to do in a timely fashion,” he said on Fox Business. “And the result of that is that we now have this global pandemic.”

Chinese officials attributed the increase to people who died at home because hospitals were too full, mistaken reporting by medical staff, and other confusion at the height of the crisis. “As a result, belated, missed and mistaken reporting occurred,” Xinhua, the Chinese news agency, reported.

The xenophobic strategy is an update on Trump’s 2016 campaign, when he played up dangers supposedly posed by Mexicans and portrayed himself as an unapologetic nationalist while denouncing his opponents as weak and naive.

But some Biden backers believe voters will find Trump’s sequel less convincing than the original.

“What Trump has been trying to sell, is this idea the Chinese misled him [about the coronavirus]. But the most you could say is they misled him for two weeks,” said Christopher R. Hill, a former U.S. ambassador who is supporting Biden.

“I’m more worried about where the U.S.-China relationship is going,” Hill added. “I’m less worried that Trump can turn this into an ace card in the election.”

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#15174 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2020-April-18, 10:02

Noah Smith @Noahpinion said:

A month after reopening, all those protesters in Michigan and Ohio will be cowering in their houses hoping someone else will go out and get herd immunity for them, while calling for cutoffs of UI to force people back to work at businesses they manage remotely.

If you lose all hope, you can always find it again -- Richard Ford in The Sportswriter
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#15175 User is offline   barmar 

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Posted 2020-April-18, 11:03

View Postkenberg, on 2020-April-18, 08:02, said:

In 2016 I thought Trump was a horrible choice for president, worse than any we have ever had. Since then I have revised my opinion of him downward several times. I have still not reached the real Trump.

You really have to give it to him. We all thought he was horrid when he instituted the Muslim travel ban, praised white supremacists, and put children in cages.

Ever since he proclaimed that he could shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue and still get elected, I think he's just been testing just how low he can sink without losing support of his base. I have a feeling there may not be any bottom to this. There's a glimmer of hope, as his approval rating has sunk somewhat this week.

#15176 User is online   johnu 

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Posted 2020-April-18, 14:46

View Postcherdano, on 2020-April-18, 06:48, said:

So it's only treason if you rebel against Republican governors?

The 3 states the Manchurian President singled out were Michigan, Minnesota, and Virginia. All 3 are swing states for the 2020 presidential election, and all 3 are led by Democratic governors. Why single them out? And why bring up the 2nd Amendment when the economy is literally sinking under the weight of the COVID-19 pandemic? The Grifter in Chief is almost always very careful in having temper tantrums against Republican governors.
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#15177 User is online   johnu 

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Posted 2020-April-18, 19:17

Cuomo unfairly targets the Manchurian President

Frustrated Andrew Cuomo Zaps "Grifter in Chief": Watch TV Less, Work More

Quote

Donald Trump picked the wrong Democrat to attack Friday. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo slapped back at criticism from the president by suggesting Trump watch less TV and “get up and go to work.”

This was a low blow by Cuomo. The Manchurian President's job is to watch 6+ hours of Fox Propaganda TV in the morning and during the day, tweet 3 or 4 hours a day during the day and evening, and attend campaign rallies Coronavirus press conferences for an hour or so in the afternoon.

Really Governor Cuomo? If the Grifter in Chief didn't watch Fox Propaganda the majority of his time, he wouldn't know what to tweet about the rest of day and night. What were you thinking in telling him to watch less TV.
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#15178 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2020-April-18, 21:11

For forum mates in the U.S. who may have forgotten what governing looks like.

Katrin Bennhold at NYT: Relying on Science and Politics, Merkel Offers a Cautious Virus Re-entry Plan

Quote

BERLIN — Chancellor Angela Merkel on Wednesday set in motion a plan for Germany to begin lifting social and economic restrictions in place because of the coronavirus, even as she warned that the road ahead would look less like a return to normal than a way to live with a pandemic that has overturned ordinary life.

The chancellor, a physicist by training, was typically restrained and focused on the science as she announced the government’s cautious step-by-step plan, for which she had won the agreement of regional leaders in Germany’s diffuse federal system.

Shorn of any bravado, her announcement seemed again to make Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, a de facto leader on the Continent and something of an example for Western nations looking to navigate the tricky course of rebooting economic activity and fighting the virus.

Her approach stood in stark contrast to the fraught political divisions in the United States, where state authorities have often been at odds with President Trump, who has made forceful but erratic predictions about the virus.

“We have achieved something,” Ms. Merkel said at a news conference, “something that by no means was a given at the start — namely that our doctors and carers, all those in the medical field, in the hospitals, were not overwhelmed.”

But she added: “What we’ve achieved is an interim success — no more, no less. And I stress that it is a fragile interim success.”

An economic lockdown will remain largely in place for an additional 20 days, Ms. Merkel cautioned, and strict social distancing rules will remain in force.

But some shops will be allowed to reopen beginning next week — although only those with the necessary protections in place to allow strict social distancing to continue, she said.

Older students might be allowed back to school in May but that will be contingent on a radically changed setup involving small groups, face masks and social distancing rules for school buses.

Every two weeks the government will take stock of infection numbers, Ms. Merkel said, to evaluate in real time the impact of each incremental measure that is lifted — and to avoid the danger of infections picking up pace again.

“We can’t have a wrongheaded push forward, even when the best intentions are behind it,” Ms. Merkel said. “We need to understand that we need to live with this virus as long as there is no vaccine and no treatment.”

Germany was hit hard by the pandemic but reacted quickly and decisively in trying to slow the spread of the virus.

A month ago, when the number of deaths stood at 90, Ms. Merkel’s government imposed strict social distancing rules that banned groups of more than two people of different households from gathering, and that shut down much of the economy.

By Wednesday, the number of infections in Germany stood at 136,616, the third-highest toll in Europe, after Spain and Italy. But the number of new daily infections has tapered off and the number of deaths, now at 3,428, has remained low compared with other countries.

Germany’s strategy of early and widespread testing and its large number of intensive care beds help explain the country’s relatively low mortality rate, but the trust in Ms. Merkel’s leadership and the resulting compliance with government measures has contributed too, virologists say.

As in previous stages of the pandemic, Ms. Merkel consulted widely before she made her announcement Wednesday. She had studied the recommendations from a panel of 26 top academics from a range of fields including behavioral psychology and ethics, and then hammered out an agreement with the governors of Germany’s 16 states.

Highlighting this broad consensus, the chancellor was flanked at her hourlong news conference not just by her finance minister, but also by the governor of Bavaria and the mayor of Hamburg.

“Germany has a collective philosophy, and the debates of recent days have ended up in a good result,” said Markus Söder, the Bavarian governor, who has not been shy to criticize Ms. Merkel in the past. “All states are completely united with the federal government on the strategy and the strategy is caution.”

In a week where several smaller countries in Europe have begun loosening restrictions, many had been eagerly waiting for Germany to come forward with a plan to emerge from the economic lockdown.

Ms. Merkel’s announcement came as the German government issued a bleak assessment of the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the economy, saying the country was headed for a steep recession and a surge in joblessness.

Among the first shops allowed to reopen are bookstores, bike stores and car dealers. But they all have to ensure that the number of customers inside is limited while also avoiding long lines from forming outside.

All schools will stay closed for another three weeks and primary schools and nurseries for longer, the chancellor said. Effective immediately, the German government is also “urgently” recommending the use of face masks in enclosed public spaces like shops and public transport, but stopped short of making masks mandatory as they are in neighboring Austria.

Restaurants and bars will have to wait longer, and large events like soccer matches remain banned until Aug. 31. Religious services won’t resume until places of worship have put in place measures to ensure the required distance between worshipers.

During Wednesday’s news conference, the chancellor thanked citizens for obeying strict social distancing rules and living with so many restrictions, stressing that Germany’s relative success in combating the virus was because of their cooperation.

“The curve has become flatter,” Ms Merkel said, referring to the number of new daily infections.

But she cautioned against a false sense of security, saying the achievements could quickly be reversed.

“We don’t have much leeway,” she said.

“If we now allow more public life, in small steps, then it is very important that we can trace infections chains even better,” she said. “That must be our aim: to trace every infection chain.”

To that end, she said, Germany’s testing capacities would be increased. The country is currently capable of testing 100,000 people a day, more than any other country in Europe.

Earlier Wednesday, the European Commission presented a road map for countries in the 27-country bloc planning their own exit strategies. Chief among its recommendations is a German-style testing regime that allows for the tracing and quarantining of those who are sick while also slowly allowing those who are not to go back to some activities.

The chancellor went into detailed explanations of the science behind her own plan.

A key variable the government was looking at, she said, is the so-called reproduction factor of the virus — the number of people an infected person passes the virus on to.

That factor currently stands at about 1, she said, meaning that one person gets infected by every newly infected person. If that factor rose even to 1.1, the German health care system would reach capacity by October, she said.

If it were allowed to rise to 1.2 — so out of five infected people one infects not one but two additional people — that limit is reached by July.

“With 1.3,” Ms. Merkel continued, “we have reached the limit of our health care system by June.”

“So you can see how small our leeway is,” she said, “the entire development rests on having a number of infections that we can keep track of and trace.”

If you lose all hope, you can always find it again -- Richard Ford in The Sportswriter
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#15179 User is offline   shyams 

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Posted 2020-April-19, 02:38

View Postshyams, on 2020-April-16, 19:28, said:

Interesting! The market still factors a 7.5% doubt!!

... which has, as of this morning, widened to 10.0%.

Worth a gamble? A roughly 10% return after costs over a period of (approx.) 4 months :blink:
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#15180 User is offline   barmar 

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Posted 2020-April-19, 15:59

View Posty66, on 2020-April-18, 21:11, said:

For forum mates in the U.S. who may have forgotten what governing looks like.

Katrin Bennhold at NYT: Relying on Science and Politics, Merkel Offers a Cautious Virus Re-entry Plan

We have a President with the best brain, that's why he relies on his gut. Who needs science?

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