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Coronavirus Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it

#1381 User is offline   shyams 

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Posted 2021-May-30, 07:03

Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution said:

"We waited too long to get rid of the wet markets” is bad, but if anything suggests the CCP should have done all the more to revolutionize and modernize China.

In contrast, the story of “our government-run research labs are low quality and poorly governed”…that seems to place the blame entirely on the shoulders of the CCP and also on its technocratic, modernizing tendencies.

There is another causal/associated factor, right? Money! The Wuhan Institute of Virology is actually designed to be world class in terms of its safety standards. Its BSL4 facilities are among the best in the world (Bio-Security Level, 4 being the highest). BSL4 is available even though research under BSL4 is slow, cumbersome and expensive.
* If the Chinese Govt. were funding the research at this lab, they would not worry much about the cost implication of BSL4.
* If the US Government were directly funding research at the lab, it is reasonable to say that they too would not worry about the cost implications of BSL4.

However, when the US National Institute of Health wants research done on potential viral threats, they always award the grant to intermediaries. The intermediaries then subcontract the actual work to WIV. In my mind, the equation is simple --- if the intermediary can charge the NIH a BSL4 quote but can somehow convince the WIV to conduct the research at BSL2 or BSL3 levels, the resultant "savings" are for the intermediary to keep.

How is it then the fault of the "government-run research labs" in China? Alternatively, why are they alone to blame?
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#1382 User is online   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-May-30, 15:22

Perhaps it is time for natural selection to work its magic.

Quote

The country's declining covid-19 case rates present an unrealistically optimistic perspective for half of the nation - the half that is still not vaccinated.

As more people receive vaccines, covid-19 cases are occurring mostly in the increasingly narrow slice of the unprotected population.




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#1383 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2021-May-30, 20:10

Of all the remarkable things I've heard over the past year or so, this quote is possibly the most surprising:

Quote

So what does it portend for the future that science has been so corrupted that it is dictated by political demands rather than observable facts?


Who said it?
Spoiler

non est deus ex machina; även maskiner behöver lite kärlek, J'ai toujours misé sur l'étrange gentillesse des robots.
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#1384 User is offline   barmar 

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Posted 2021-June-01, 09:42

View Postpilowsky, on 2021-May-30, 20:10, said:

Of all the remarkable things I've heard over the past year or so, this quote is possibly the most surprising:

Yes, out of context it seems very surprising. But then you watch the interview, and his (and the interviewee's) feeling that science has been perverted is precisely due to his political bias.

They just don't understand how science works.

#1385 User is online   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-June-01, 10:19

View Postbarmar, on 2021-June-01, 09:42, said:

Yes, out of context it seems very surprising. But then you watch the interview, and his (and the interviewee's) feeling that science has been perverted is precisely due to his political bias.

They just don't understand how science works.

They know. but they also know that to be effective the lies of propaganda must be continually repeated.

Their agenda is power, and there is no sacrifice-truth or democracy itself-that is too great to deflect their pursuit of that end .
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." Black Lives Matter.
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#1386 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2021-June-01, 10:38

Well, if I knew this question could get settled, I'd certainly be happy to make a bet with Tyler Cowen that SARS-Cov-2 is a normal zoonotic virus.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#1387 User is offline   pescetom 

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Posted 2021-June-03, 16:45

A few days ago I listened to the economist Carlo Cottarelli, former director of IMF. Talking about Covid impact and response by nation, he said that death rates per nation varied very significantly (I could probably remember the numbers for NZ and Belgium if pushed) and that GNP and health spending had near zero correlation with these rates: the key factors for a high death rate were early incidence of epidemic, PM2 pollution and lack of a traditional culture of distancing. That certainly rings true here in northern Italy.
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#1388 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2021-June-03, 17:43

Just in from the Australian Broadcasting Commission:
"Regional Victorians no longer need a reason to leave home."
I'm sure they'll be delighted.
non est deus ex machina; även maskiner behöver lite kärlek, J'ai toujours misé sur l'étrange gentillesse des robots.
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#1389 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2021-June-03, 17:46

Well, maybe the former director of IMF should stick to economics. I mean, wtf. I mean seriously, as former director of IMF maybe he could have heard of the country "China"?
One of the most idiotic statements I have heard.
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#1390 User is offline   pescetom 

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Posted 2021-June-04, 08:11

View Postcherdano, on 2021-June-03, 17:46, said:

Well, maybe the former director of IMF should stick to economics. I mean, wtf. I mean seriously, as former director of IMF maybe he could have heard of the country "China"?
One of the most idiotic statements I have heard.


China is a huge and varied country and of course includes Wuhan: I imagine it is not easy to compare as a whole with NZ, Belgium, Israel etc.
Which part of his statement do you find idiotic with relation to China or some part of China?
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#1391 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2021-June-04, 11:36

China had early incidence of the pandemic, has high pollution, and I would say a "lack of a traditional culture of distancing". So basically he is only 100% wrong.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#1392 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2021-June-04, 16:02

View Postcherdano, on 2021-June-04, 11:36, said:

China had early incidence of the pandemic, has high pollution, and I would say a "lack of a traditional culture of distancing". So basically he is only 100% wrong.


No, he's right and you are wrong.

Some parts of China - which is a huge country by landmass - have 'high pollution' - most of it does not.
Your understanding of Chinese culture seems to be close to zero.
non est deus ex machina; även maskiner behöver lite kärlek, J'ai toujours misé sur l'étrange gentillesse des robots.
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#1393 User is offline   johnu 

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Posted 2021-June-04, 16:11

View Postbarmar, on 2021-June-01, 09:42, said:

Yes, out of context it seems very surprising. But then you watch the interview, and his (and the interviewee's) feeling that science has been perverted is precisely due to his political bias.

They just don't understand how science works.


I disagree. The right fringe knows how science works, they just don't like what the results say. Interesting that the guy interviewed is from the right fringe Hoover Institution, founded by world renowned economics guru Herbert Hoover. If you want to have a catastrophic world depression, Hoover is the guy with all the answers.

That clown masquerading as an academic Hanson attempted to equate scientists, Democrats, and Liberals to the people who put Galileo in jail for saying the earth revolved around the sun. What an a**hole. It was the catholic church that disagreed and was the force behind Galileo being arrested and convicted. These days it is the evangelical churches that don't believe in any science that contradicts their charlatan voodoo and the Republicans that owe much of their political power to sucking (up to) fake christian TV personalities masquerading as evangelical leaders.
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#1394 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2021-June-05, 17:15

View Postpilowsky, on 2021-June-04, 16:02, said:


No, he's right and you are wrong.

Some parts of China - which is a huge country by landmass - have 'high pollution' - most of it does not.
Your understanding of Chinese culture seems to be close to zero.

Doesn't matter whether most of the landmass has high pollution - it matters whether most people are exposed to high pollution. (Though I admit this may already have changed a lot since I last visited.)

I certainly have little understanding of Chinese culture; but maybe more importantly I guess I don't understand what "lack of a traditional culture of distancing" if it doesn't apply to China.

In any case, this view all sounds like someone who has not thought about this topic since last summer. Early incidence mattered for the size of the first wave. But most deaths in Europe occurred in later waves.
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#1395 User is online   hrothgar 

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Posted 2021-June-05, 17:33

View Postpilowsky, on 2021-June-04, 16:02, said:


No, he's right and you are wrong.

Some parts of China - which is a huge country by landmass - have 'high pollution' - most of it does not.
Your understanding of Chinese culture seems to be close to zero.


If only there were some way to look at air quality in China
Perhaps a map like the following

https://aqicn.org/map/china/

And compare this to air quality in, say, North America or Europe

https://aqicn.org/map/europe/
https://aqicn.org/map/northamerica/

This would actually allow usto make some informed comparisons without relying on Pilowsky's typical bullshit claims
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#1396 User is online   sfi 

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Posted 2021-June-05, 17:41

View Postcherdano, on 2021-June-05, 17:15, said:

Doesn't matter whether most of the landmass has high pollution - it matters whether most people are exposed to high pollution. (Though I admit this may already have changed a lot since I last visited.)

My only data points are Shanghai, Wuhan the train trip between them. I didn't see blue sky on the 900+ km trip either direction. The pictures from Wuhan during lockdown were the first indications of blue sky I saw from either city.
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#1397 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2021-June-05, 18:02

Where do you think all ***** that you buy in the USA - and Australia and Europe - come from?
The USA has a trade deficit with China that is more than three times larger than any other Country.
China -78.6; Mexico -25.8; Vietnam -20.4 etc

Blaming China for causing pollution is like blaming your car for causing pollution when you drive it.
Richard talks about "Pilowsky's bullshit"
He should clean up his own backyard. That's where the biggest herd of cattle is.

You talk the left-wing talk but what comes out sounds just like Trump.



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#1398 User is online   hrothgar 

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Posted 2021-June-05, 18:07

View Postsfi, on 2021-June-05, 17:41, said:

My only data points are Shanghai, Wuhan the train trip between them. I didn't see blue sky on the 900+ km trip either direction. The pictures from Wuhan during lockdown were the first indications of blue sky I saw from either city.


For what its worth, in the last decade I spent

1. About four weeks traveling through Yunnan a couple years ago
2. About three weeks in Sichuan, mostly around Chengdu
3. About three weeks in / around Beijing and Hunnan

The air quality was fine up around the Tibetan peninsula, but horrific otherwise.
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#1399 User is online   hrothgar 

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Posted 2021-June-05, 18:27

View Postpilowsky, on 2021-June-05, 18:02, said:

Where do you think all ***** that you buy in the USA - and Australia and Europe - come from?
The USA has a trade deficit with China that is more than three times larger than any other Country.
China -78.6; Mexico -25.8; Vietnam -20.4 etc

Blaming China for causing pollution is like blaming your car for causing pollution when you drive it.
Richard talks about "Pilowsky's bullshit"
He should clean up his own backyard. That's where the biggest herd of cattle is.

You talk the left-wing talk but what comes out sounds just like Trump.





Oh look!

Pillowsky has once more been called out for his bullshit and now is he is desperately trying to distract away from his original claim.

I never "blamed China" for "causing pollution".
This is a strawman that you are inventing.

Moreover, the fact that you prefer to rail against imaginary claims rather than dealing with the actual arguments that people present is (part of) the reason that I talking about "Pillowsky bullshit".

I did point out that raw data suggests that air quality in China is much much worse than than in North America or Europe.

In addition, as Cherdano notes: The air quality in those areas of China that are densely populated is particularly bad.
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#1400 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2021-June-05, 18:46

View Posthrothgar, on 2021-June-05, 18:27, said:

Oh look!

Pillowsky has once more been called out for his bullshit and now is he is desperately trying to distract away from his original claim.

I never "blamed China" for "causing pollution".
This is a strawman that you are inventing.

Moreover, the fact that you prefer to rail against imaginary claims rather than dealing with the actual arguments that people present is (part of) the reason that I talking about "Pillowsky bullshit".

I did point out that raw data suggests that air quality in China is much much worse than than in North America or Europe.

In addition, as Cherdano notes: The air quality in those areas of China that are densely populated is particularly bad.

Oh look Richard -
China is the engine room of the US economy.
When the US blames China for all its problems it conveniently forgets that it pays China to create the problems that it complains about.
A private US security firm also supplies Chinese state media with its server capacity so that it can safely pump false narratives into the atmosphere without fear of cyber attack.
Good job.



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